Here Comes Another One...TD-7

[Bloozcat]

We haven't even dried out yet from Fay, and here comes another one. It's still early and the forecast track might not be accurate (which could be good or bad), but I don't like the looks of this.

http://www.crownweather.com/td07.html

[warren0728]

yep....i just saw that....better enjoy the sun while i can :thwap:

ww

[bigoldron]

Blooz and Warren, don't panic yet. It might go toward Texas. That's kinda the bad thing about where it is now, it's always hard to know which way it'll go.

Just keep your fingers crossed guys!

[Bloozcat]

It's now gone from tropical wave, to tropical depression, to tropical storm with 60 mph winds...all since I submitted this earlier today.

The good news is that the National Hurricane Center's forcast is based on...crap, really. There are 8 computer models that predict the path of a storm. In this case, 5 of the eight models have the storm turning WNW and moving south of Cuba, into the western Caribbean and then the Gulf of Mexico. Only three of the models have it going north to the Bahamas or possibly Florida. And...the group of five models that show it turning WNW contain the most reliable models of those available.

The National Hurricane Center even said themselves that they just split the models to come up with their track. Doesn't sound like much thought went into that...:confused:

I'm rooting for the 5-model group...:AOK:

[Katastrophe]

Uhhhh.... Ron, why'dya have to wish it on us Texans? How about we hope it breaks up in the Gulf, never making landfall anywhere?

[bigoldron]

Uhhhh.... Ron, why'dya have to wish it on us Texans? How about we hope it breaks up in the Gulf, never making landfall anywhere?

Works for me Kat. Don't really want it hitting anywhere.

[Brian Krashpad]

Hmm, if he tracks right up Cuba like this maybe he'll dissipate.

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath07_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

Prob is, if he makes it into the Gulf he could power up again.

[Bloozcat]

Just as I said yesterday, The National Hurricane Center's projected path that they first put out was crap....

Now, with 7 of the eight computer models in agreement, the NHC has finally put out a more realistic projected path - towards the WNW. I guess 5 of 8 models yesterday wasn't enough for them to come up with a more realistic track. Instead, they chose to scare the h*ll out of a TS Fay weary Florida with their bogus projection. The Gustav discussion even projects the possibility of a due west track, which would take it into the Yucatan. While not great for Mexico, good for the US.

Long range landfall projection models have Gustav making landfall anywhere from the central US Gulf coast (NOGAPS) all the way around to Mexico (European Model), with Texas mentioned in between as well (Canadian Model). It's way too early to tell right now, as there is an eastern low pressure trough that will be departing with a building ridge of high pressure moving in behind it. Timing will be everything in determining just where Gustav goes. It'll likely be late this week/weekend before we see any indication...if Gustav doesn't just track right into the Yucatan before that...

Your amateur meteorologist, Bloozcat...
(Hey, I can guess almost as well as they can with the same information...:D )

[tot_Ou_tard]

Your amateur meteorologist, Bloozcat...
(Hey, I can guess almost as well as they can with the same information...:D )
You should run your own model. The input variables are:

The number of drams of single malt Warren drank last night
Did Brian's wife buy a 12-pack yes/no
Make of guitar you last played
The cube of the year of manufacture of your favorite guitar.


EVERYONE knows that the fav guitar year enters in to the hurricane forcast as a cube.

[Bloozcat]

You should run your own model. The input variables are:

The number of drams of single malt Warren drank last night
Did Brian's wife by a 12-pack yes/no
Make of guitar you last played
The cube of the year of manufacture of your favorite guitar.


EVERYONE knows that the fav guitar year enters in to the hurricane forcast as a cube.

Good suggestion tot, but I think I'll just stay with my preferred method:

Set up the hurricane map, blindfold myself, spin around three times, and play "pin the tail on the hurricane..." :D

[Brian Krashpad]

Good suggestion tot, but I think I'll just stay with my preferred method:

Set up the hurricane map, blindfold myself, spin around three times, and play "pin the tail on the hurricane..." :D

Isn't that what NWS is already using?

[Bloozcat]

What are we, a hotdog or something...??!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0808_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/084713.gif

Gustav is supposed to track NNW on our west side, and now they're predicting that TD#8 (soon to be Hanna) will be tracking to the west right at South Florida (so the NHC says).

Damn Kamikaze hurricanes... :reallymad: