NFL Coaching Carousel and the Draft

[marnold***]

It looks like the head coaching situation in the NFL is set for 2009, unless the Chiefs really are going to can Herm Edwards for the Cardinals' OC. Anyway, my Lions have hired Gunther Cunningham as DC and Scott Linehan as OC. Two pretty good hires, I think. Neither one had a great season last year, but both have presided over very good units in the past.

The first mock drafts are out and they either have the Lions picking Matt Stafford or Andre Smith. If they do their due diligence and feel that Stafford will be All That, then drafting him is a no-brainer. Smith isn't necessarily a slam-dunk pick. While he has been dominating there are those wonderful character issues that the Lions need like a hole in the head. IMO, the only thing worse than drafting a QB #1 and missing is drafting a lineman #1 and missing. There's also the thing with paying a lineman #1 money. In an ideal world, they'd trade down. I don't think that'll happen unless Stafford knocks the socks off everybody--or at least one team.

[R_of_G]

And not long after you posted that, ESPN reported that Herm Edwards has indeed been sacked by the Chiefs.

As for the draft, let's take your Lions first. We've already discussed our agreement that the best move would be a trade down. I still think this is a distinct possibility, but let's play with the hypothetical that they will actually pick first. If it were me, I wouldn't take Smith or Stafford. With Stafford the reason is obvious. He is the best QB available, that I will grant him. I don't think he's #1 pick good though. There's a difference. For every Matt Ryan there's a half dozen Akili Smiths or Ryan Leafs. There is a pretty reasonable expectation that however much better the Lions may be this year, they will probably still be bad enough to pick fairly high next year when there are MUCH better QB's to be available. With Smith, again, probably the best at his position, but again, not necessarily franchise player good. It's actually a pretty weak draft class this year.

So who would I pick if I were the Lions? Nobody should be surprised that my pick would be on the other side of the ball. I firmly believe you build a winner by building a defense. I think Boston College's DT B.J. Raji is the kind of defensive lineman you could justifiably draft with a #1 pick.

Now on to my team, the J-E-T-S. I looked at Mel Kiper's mock draft and for the umpteenth year in a row I question the guy's sanity. He may be a very good evaluator of talent, but as far as determining what player a team should pick, the guy is an imbecile. He has the Jets picking Percy Harvin, the WR from Florida. Now, I have nothing against Harvin. He is a great WR and he should be an NFL player. However, the Jets already have 4 undersized WR's. Why on earth would they want another one? Also, does anyone really think a team that just hired Rex Ryan as head coach is going to draft any offensive player with their first pick? We all know who I want, Ray Maulaluga (LB, USC). According to Kiper, the Jets will pass on Ray and take Harvin. That's nuts. If Ray is gone, than his teammate Brian Cushing (LB, USC) should still be available. Either one of them would be perfectly acceptable to me. If the Jets take an offensive player, I will be shocked.

[marnold***]

Just read that about Herm too.

Raji's not a bad choice, but I think that he's even more of a reach at #1 than the other two.

[Katastrophe]

Not a Lions fan, but something has to be done about that team. No one deserves to lose all their games. Especially in these days of parity...:

[marnold***]

Not a Lions fan, but something has to be done about that team. No one deserves to lose all their games. Especially in these days of parity...:

Oh, the Lions thoroughly deserved to lose all their games. Whether the Lions fans deserve a team like that is a matter of some debate.

Just saw on ESPN that Shanahan may be the next Chiefs coach.

[R_of_G]

Raji's not a bad choice, but I think that he's even more of a reach at #1 than the other two.

Well now that gives us something interesting to monitor this coming season. Not that you and I wouldn't be doing so anyway.

I think aside from my "defense first" mentality, the reason I think Raji would be the best choice is because I think his is the game that will most easily translate to the NFL quickly.

I also saw the bit about KC going after Shanahan. I think he'd be a good fit. I think he'd be a good fit anywhere really, I just think it was time for Denver to move on and for him to move on from Denver. Here's a double hypothetical to ponder... If Shanny goes to KC and if KC takes a QB with the third pick (likely Sanchez if Detroit takes Stafford) imagine the possibilities.

[marnold***]

There's an interesting article in the Detroit Free Press by Drew Sharpe that points out two important things:
1) Mock drafts right now are next to worthless
2) Drafting an OL #1 isn't inherently "safer" than anything else

He makes the valid point that if you're going to dump that much cash on a lineman, he'd better be more than just a nice player. He'd better be "the second coming of Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden." He also shows how some of the top O-lines in the league aren't littered with first round picks. His point isn't that they shouldn't take Andre Smith but that they'd better do their due diligence and also that just because he might be the "safe" pick it doesn't mean he's the "right" one.

As much attention is being placed on the #1 pick, the Lions' future will be determined more on the second day of the draft where they're record is astonishingly far worse than in the first round.

[R_of_G]

1) Mock drafts right now are next to worthless

Couldn't agree more. It's yet another opportunity for the sports media to play their favorite game of throwing out superlatives and pretending subjective topics can be discussed objectively.

As much attention is being placed on the #1 pick, the Lions' future will be determined more on the second day of the draft where they're record is astonishingly far worse than in the first round.

Again, couldn't agree more. The later round picks almost always have a greater impact in the long run than the first rounders. This is where you build a future for your team.

I think the hyper-focus on the first round goes back to my continuing criticism of the sports media. They want to make out every unproven kid to be "the next (insert name of legend who played same position)". The truth is, every last one of these players has never played a single down in the NFL and it is impossible to determine who will or won't even make a team let alone go on to superstardom. How often do we hear about the "can't miss" guys who go on to bust (Brian Bosworth is probably the classic example)? Look at some of the guys who have turned out to be solid players and look at what rounds in which they were drafted (Tom Brady is the best example here). For every Matt Ryan there are two Ryan Leafs.

The fact is, nobody knows what's going to happen when these kids get to training camp and more so when the games actually count. Some of them were products of their systems. Some of them might do better under different coaches in the NFL. There's no way to tell which running back will be the next Brandon Jacobs and which will be the next Blair Thomas. It's a crap shoot.